As the aviation industry sets its sights on achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, significant challenges loom that could drive up the cost of air travel, according to industry experts. Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), highlighted these concerns during the organization’s annual meeting. “I’m sorry to say, but the transition to net-zero will require customers to pay,” said Walsh. “Ultimately, costs will increase, and those costs will have to be recovered. And that, in all probability, will lead to an increase in the cost of air travel. I just don’t see how we can do it any different way.”
The ambitious commitment to net-zero by 2050, endorsed by several airlines and supported energetically by entities like the United Nations, is driven by urgent environmental concerns. According to the U.N.’s Net Zero Coalition, limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is essential to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. The Earth has already warmed approximately 1.1°C since the late 1800s, and with emissions still on the rise, drastic reductions are necessary.
The aviation industry, which accounted for 2.4% of global CO2 emissions in 2018 and roughly 3% of the U.S.’s greenhouse gas production, is under significant pressure to decarbonize. Research published in Environmental Research suggests that the sector could negate its contribution to global warming by reducing air travel annually by 2.3% or by shifting to a 90% carbon-neutral fuel mix by 2050.
However, the transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which are currently three to four times more expensive than conventional jet fuel, presents a financial challenge. The International Council on Clean Transportation has estimated that achieving the net-zero goal will require up to $5 trillion in fuel and aircraft investments.
While some airlines, like Alaska Airlines, have proactively set a more ambitious deadline of 2040 for themselves, the broader industry struggles with a slow pace in technology advancement and a shortage in SAF production. This situation is forming a ‘perfect storm’ for future price increases in air travel, as the sector strives to align with global climate objectives.